The Bears' Week 5 2nd half collapse against the Panthers was awful - but don't overreact

The Bears were looking really strong in Week 5 against Carolina. At least, in the first half. In the first half, the Bears were firing on all cylinders on offense, and a defense, one of the weakest last season, held up for the most part against Cam Newton's offense.

But the Bears showed their inconsistency and 2nd-half struggles to the NFL world again this week, dropping to 2-3, and losing very winnable games. In the last 2 games, the Bears have been outscored 34-3 in the 2nd half, mainly because of no creativity in the offensive playcall. Sloppy Jay Cutler turnovers and consistently poor performances from the Bears defense have also been contributing factors to the Bears' recent 2nd half woes.

A lack of creativity on offensive plays has plagued the Bears in the 2nd half this season.

The Panthers showed exactly what the Packers showed last week. The Bears offense has potential and talent, and they show that in the first half. But, as defenses start to adjust (like Carolina and Green Bay has done the past two weeks), Marc Trestman and Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer fail to draw something up on offense, often running the same exact plays that they did in the first half - or even the previous drive. There is no originality in the Bears playcall - on both offense and defense - and that's going to continue to haunt Chicago (especially in the 2nd half). 

However, now's not the time to panic. Yes, the offense is very underwhelming thus far this year. Yes, the defense still has some problems to fix. But the Bears have the weapons and talent on offense that almost every other NFL team covets. Matt Forte is a top-tier running back, Martellus Bennett is a formidable tight end (to say the least), and the Bears have the top wide-receiver duo in the league. 

The Bears have the weapons on offense, but with poor playcalling and inconsistent quarterback play, you can't really blame Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery for Chicago's struggles this year.

If Jay Cutler can clean up the turnovers, the defense remains at least average, and the Bears fix their playcalling issues (which will, in turn, fix up their 2nd half woes), then I still see the Bears as a threat in the NFC. And, if all three of these things happen, the Bears offense will improve greatly. The offense - expected to lead but is now disappointing - will need Cutler to perform if they want to be better. 

If the Bears want to improve, Jay Cutler needs to play better - and more consistently

However, there is no guarantee these three things will happen. I'm not saying it's impossible, but with Chicago has played this year, it seems unlikely. Trestman needs to give the ball to Forte more often to keep pressure away from Cutler. However, Forte's not getting the ball, and defenses get to focus on the quarterback more. This will cause Cutler to throw into double coverage, and Jay will eventually face more pressure in the pocket. This, in turn will lead to even more Cutler turnovers. The Bears can only get better if Cutler improves his play. But Jay will need Trestman to call more creative (and run) plays if he wants to perform better at the quarterback position.

Again, I can still see the Bears as contenders in the NFC if the playcalling improves, Cutler plays more consistently, and the defense remains (at least) average. 

If these things don't happen, I'm expecting a long season for the Bears. I'm expecting a lot of games to go like this week's matchup with Carolina - potential in the first half, but a collapse in the second. 

Matt Forte proved his early season struggles weren't an issue in Week 4

Week 4 was pretty tough for me. I'm in first place in my fantasy league, but I lost to the last place team by 2 points. Ouch. Oh yeah, and the Bears had an embarssing Week 4 loss to Green Bay. But let's not talk about how much our defense stunk, as I predicted.

If there was any consolation about the Bears Week 4 loss to Green Bay, it was that Matt Forte's early season struggles are behind him. After 82, 21, and 33 rushing yards in Weeks 1-3, Matt rushed for an an astounding 122 yards on 23 carries in Week 4 against the Packers.

The big question coming into Week 4 (besides the obvious, "Will Jay finally beat Green Bay?") was "What was causing Matt Forte's rushing struggles this season?"

A lot of people say it's the depleted offensive line that's caused Forte to struggle. With Brian de la Puente in at center for Roberto Garza and Michael Ola in at left guard for Matt Slausen, questions about Jay's protection in the pocket and Forte's rushing numbers arose.

However, people fail to realize that Cutler was only sacked 8 times through 4 games. 8 sacks is the NFL average! I don't think the offense line is to blame for Forte's struggles.

Chicago's depleted offensive line was not the cause of Matt Forte's early season struggles.

A lot of people put the blame on Matt Forte himself. He turned 28 a month ago. Is he going to hit a statistical wall, no longer being able to maintain his reputation as a much-better-than-average back? No, no, no. These Bears fans are the impatient, untrue, disloyal people that call themselves "fans."

Let me tell you: Forte is not declining; at least not yet. Don't expect him to break down next year, either, barring an injury of some sort. Forte is still elite.

It's not Matt Forte's fault he was struggling in Weeks 1-3. 

Others point at Marc Trestman, calling too many passing plays for Jay Cutler - opting to throw rather than to run. Coming in to Week 4, the Bears called a pass play 70% of the time, making them the least balanced NFL team at that point. When Forte only gets 12 carries in Week 2 and 13 carries in Week 3, these fans have a point.

Because Matt Forte rushed for 122 when given a plentiful 23 carries. And when you have a back like Forte, it's okay give him 20 carries. But considering the Bears have Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett at their disposal, giving Forte 20 carries is probably something Marc Trestman is not willing to do.

Heck, I can't blame Trestman for throwing to the 6'3" Alshon Jeffery, the 6'4" Brandon Marshall, and the 6'5" Martellus Bennett.

But I can blame him for throwing it 70% of the time. What other teams have their elite rusher making a carry less than 1/3 of the time?

We can put some of the blame on Trestman. But not all. Mostly, it's not Trestman to blame.

So, yes, some of the blame can be put on Trestman. But Marc is not the main reason why Forte was sruggling. Most of the blame cannot be put on Trestman. Most of it his not his fault. The big, main reason why Forte struggled in Weeks 1-3 was not Trestman's fault. It wasn't even in Trestman's control.

So it's not the o-line. It's not Forte. It's not really Trestman, either. What was to blame?

Forte's tough, unfriendly matchups in three of the top five run defenses in the league was the main cause of Matt's sruggles.

As mentioned in my last post, the Bears defense looked better than they really are because of a friendly matchup with the offensively-challenged Jets. Likewise, Matt Forte, third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage last year, looked pretty bad in Weeks 1-3. But my contention has always been that Forte looked extra poor because of unfriendly matchups with the Bills, 49ers, and Jets. Per ESPN.com, Buffalo, San Francisco, and New York all rank in the top 5 in the NFL for fewest rushing yards or touchdowns scored against them this season.

Naturally, I expected Forte to turn it around and bounce back against the Packers (most rushing yards allowed in the NFL, 2nd most rushing TDs allowed).

I think it's safe to say he did.

I think it's also safe to say that the early season struggles weren't a fluke. It's safe to say that Forte will put up Forte-like numbers for the rest of the year.

Matt Forte's struggles in Weeks 1-3 will not be an issue for the rest of the year.

Bears fans, you can deeply exhale again. Matt Forte is fine. He proved that in Week 4 albeit a loss.

Matt Forte returned to his swift ways despite a brutal Week 4 loss.

Bears Defense Actually Looked Good Against the Jets in Week 3 - Don't Expect that against the Packers

When the Bears defense forced four fumbles and two interceptions (one pick-six) en route to a 27-19 win on Monday Night Football in Week 3, I was very pleased.

I mean, the Bears defense looked amazing Monday night. Chicago was forcing turnovers left and right, putting pressure on the quarterback, and scoring. The defense actually looked good. And, as a bonus, our special teams unit didn't look horrendous like they did in Weeks 1 and 2. Speaking of Week 2, our defense looked great against the 49ers. 

Our defense looked so good, I was having some flashbacks of our defense during the Lovie Smith era. Okay, maybe the defense wasn't that good, but you get my point. 

Even though the defense didn't look Lovie Smith-good in Week 3, they looked a heck of a lot better than last season.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Bears defense played well against the Jets, but we have to remember: we were playing the Jets. 

Now, I'm not saying that Week 3 was a big fluke on the defensive side of the football. Our defense will certainly be better than last year (I mean, can you get any worse?). However, the defense is still subpar, and a friendly week 3 matchup may have been the biggest cause for the four fumbles forced and the two INTs.

Ryan Mundy and Kyle Fuller both picked off Geno Smith. Mundy took it into the endzone. But did the defense looks so good largely due to a lousy Jets offense and quarterback?

Let's look at just how bad this Jets offense is.

In 2013, the Jets ranked in the bottom 10% of all teams in almost every major offensive category. Per ESPN.com,

• New York ranked fourth to last in points per game, scoring a mere 18.1 points per game.

• They ranked tied for 27th in total first downs, with just 280 first downs the whole season. 
• The Jets ranked 25th in yards per game as well, with just 318. 
• New York had 183 pass yards per game last year, good for second-last in the NFL. 
• The Jets were third worst in the league last year in passing first downs, with just 154. 
• New York had 231 third down attempts last year, which is fifth most. You'll notice that the top-scoring teams (like Denver, Seattle, Chicago, and Dallas) usually have the lowest third down attempts. 
• The Jets were dead last in the NFL in fourth down conversion percentage, converting just 12.5% of the time on fourth downs. Denver, the #1 team in this category, converted 89% of the time on fourth down. 
• The Jets were last in the league in completion percentage for passers, completing just 55.4% of their passes last year.
• New York QBs (mostly Geno Smith) passed for an average of 183 yards per game, second worst.
• With a passer rating of 66.6, the Jets are last in the league.
• New York threw for just 13 TD passes the whole year in 2013. That's last. The Broncos, first in the league, had 55 TD passes. Of course, Denver has Peyton Manning. The Jets have Geno Smith.
• With 22 INTs, the Jets QBs had the third most picks in the league.
• Jets QBs have been sacked 47 times. That's the 6th most in the NFL.
• The Jets were second worst in the NFL in receptions, with just 266 the whole year.
• New York was the third worst team in football in reception yards, with 3,270 reception yards.
• The Jets' longest reception was 69 yards, which ranked 24th. 
• The Jets were on the rock bottom of the league in reception TDs with just 13 the whole year. 13!

I can keep going on, but you get my point. I think you got the point by the first three or four stats, but I just wanted to keep making fun of how bad the Jets offense is. So I gave you about a hundred stats just for laughs. You're welcome.

Anyhow, the Bears did a great job beating down an awful offense.

Geno Smith and his offense really struggled in 2013. Unfortunately, not every offense is as bad as the Jets'.

Unfortunately, not every offense is as bad as the Jets. And with the Packers headed to Chicago in Week 4, I'm not really banking on a low-scoring game. Sure, Green Bay has struggled this season, but let's take into account that the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, who seems to be a Bears-killer.

I'm not expecting a strong defensive performance against the Pack's dominant offense. 

This defense can beat a bad team in Week 3. If the defense shuts down Green Bay next week, then we can really start talking.